SHMET (Shanghai Metals Market) reports that late-October saw a further acceleration in the lithium battery upstream decline: battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices fell to 93,608 CNY/tonne, firmly below the 100,000 CNY/tonne threshold, and the futures main chain broke below 90,000 CNY/tonne for two consecutive sessions, shedding nearly 30% in one month.
Summary
SHMET (Shanghai Metals Market) reports that late-October saw a further acceleration in the lithium battery upstream decline: battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices fell to 93,608 CNY/tonne, firmly below the 100,000 CNY/tonne threshold, and the futures main chain broke below 90,000 CNY/tonne for two consecutive sessions, shedding nearly 30% in one month. The source of the decline remains at the resource end: the average spodumene concentrate price fell to 1,290 USD/tonne, down 31.35% from end-September, while domestic lepidolite concentrate was quoted at 1,500 CNY/tonne, down 42.06%, with loose supply expectations at the mine end continuing to be released. Lithium salt declines were slightly smaller than at the mine end because the industry is still digesting high-priced ore inventory from earlier periods, and the price decline in upstream feedstock has been fully realised. Cathode materials became the main relay of the price cuts: 5-series, 6-series and 8-series ternary precursors fell 14.50%, 12.79% and 12.50% month-on-month; lithium iron phosphate was quoted at 43,680 CNY/tonne at month-end, down 18.81%, lithium cobaltate fell 21.60%, and power manganese oxide fell only 6.90%. Anode and separator barely moved, with mid-range artificial graphite up just 0.18% and natural graphite flat, while 7μm wet-process and 16μm dry-process base film quotations were unchanged. Electrolyte moved against the trend: ternary power and LFP power electrolyte rose 1.37% and 1.38% month-on-month, with battery-grade EC solvent up 8.20%, DMC solvent down 10.54%, VC down 9.70% and FEC up 1.27%, partially offsetting the cost reduction from cheaper lithium raw materials. Transmission into cells attenuated step by step: 523 square ternary cells fell 12.11% month-on-month, 6-series and 8-series fell 9.82% and 8.93%, and 100Ah square LFP power cells fell 13.47%; in storage, the 314Ah storage cell index declined only 1.08%, as projects are mainly served by long-term price-locked orders. The overall pattern is lithium ore > lithium salt > cathode materials > cells.
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